Pennsylvania Primary: Goin’ Dutch - Ignorance is Bliss | Indecision2008

April 22nd at 5:05PM

Pennsylvania Primary: Goin' Dutch - Ignorance is Bliss

POSTED BY: CubbyChaser

FiveThirtyEight.com lays out some things that you should completely ignore the shit out of while following tonight's primary returns...

(1) Leaked exit polls, which have been way off this cycle, and been slanted an average of 7 points in Obama's direction. A substantial Clinton lead in the exit polls might be taken modestly more seriously than, say, something that showed Obama three points ahead, but these things aren't designed for what you think they're designed for -- just ignore them.

(2) Very early returns, such as in the first hour after polls close. Because there are such profound regional differences in the way that Pennsylvania polls, the results will be almost entirely a function of where the numbers are coming in from. Odds are that rural areas will report their results before the cities, which means that the early numbers should favor Clinton (this may actually be a nontrivial advantage to her in terms of media narrative; the race could very easily be called for her when the ticker shows Clinton ahead by 14, but things could close to within 8 points once all votes were counted).

I'd like to add, if I may...