April 24th at 11:32AM

Hillary Clinton Leads the Popular Vote in MakeBelieveLand

POSTED BY: CubbyChaser

Yesterday, we posted about the Clinton campaign's creative use of mathematics in framing the race for the lead in popular votes.

Well, now it looks like they're definitely pushing the idea, trying to make their statistically-challenged statistics a piece of conventional unwisdom...

The day after her big win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday that she now has more votes than anybody who has ever run for president in a Democratic primary.

"I'm very proud that as of today, I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anybody else, and I am proud of that," Clinton said at a rally in Indianapolis. "It's a very close race, but if you count, as I count, the 2.3 million people who voted in Michigan and Florida, then we are going to build on that."

That's kind of right, in a kind of not right way.

But let's go ahead and, for one moment, cede Michigan and Florida to Clinton. Well, to make this work, you also have to not count, as she does not count, all the caucuses that Barack Obama has won (Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine). So, now, not only are you counting two states that don't count, but you're not counting four states that do count. That's kinda fair, right?

But does she really want to point this out to everybody, fuzzy logic aside? With all the mangling of numbers her camapign had to go through to get her ahead in the popular vote, she's only ahead by 0.5%. And that's when you're counting the entire state of Michigan, in which Obama wasn't even on the ticket at all.

Including Michigan and Florida, Clinton has 15.1 million to Obama's 15 million -- a lead of about one-half of a percentage point for Clinton. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama has 14.4 million to Clinton's 13.9 million -- a lead of about 1.7 percent for Obama.

And with all that, there are very good chances that she'll be behind again in just a few contests.

Obama also is likely to win South Dakota and Oregon. Even if Clinton won all the other contests left -- Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Montana, Puerto Rico and Guam -- they are smaller contests that will make it difficult for her to catch back up.

But the important thing is that Hillary Clinton is winning! Go Hillary! Yes she can! Yes she can!

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4 Comments

  1. Hillary threatening nuclear Cold War with Iran? Saber rattling?

    Clinton says U.S. could "totally obliterate" Iran
    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=4701159

    Hillary has set off a global controversy with her threats to obliterate Iran. How can she hope to get elected after angering the world like this?

    Hillary’s Iran threat reverberates around the world… prompted shock overseas as well as headlines from Bulgaria to New Zealand.

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2008/04/iran-hillarys-t.html

    Clinton's Iran Threat Contradicts Previous Position on Making Such Comments
    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/clintons-iran-t.html

    Hillary’s bad Iran vote:
    http://pundits.thehill.com/2007/10/25/hillary-clinton%E2%80%99s-bad-iran-vote/

    Obliteration:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-scheer/clinton-puts-iran-in-her_b_98133.html

    Interview on Countdown
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24246275/

    by Tane April 24th at 4:32PM
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  2. Shapeshifters have been winning the White House since Jefferson.

    by hilo08 April 24th at 1:08PM
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  3. I like also to know which Hillary is winning. First she is a southern bell in New Orleans; then a teary-eyed, american-loving candidate who just wants to serve; then a victimized woman that men and the press want to crush; then Rocky; then a gun-toting, whiskey- drinking common folk. I just wonder how she going to become black in North Carolina? Maybe she will accuse men of not being able to count accurately and she should do all the counting from now on.

    by Vicky Kohn April 24th at 1:00PM
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  4. Actually, Obama didn't win Nevada--he got more delegates there, be Hillary actually won by about six percent. And there are a lot more caucuses Obama won than just Iowa, Washington, and Maine: Minnesota, Colorado, and Hawaii, just to name a few.

    by Joe April 24th at 12:08PM
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